US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through February 2026) Due to the government shutdown, October is missing from inflation indicators, requiring an imputation between September and November. Some indicators are still off-schedule because government statistical agencies are still catching up. US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at a 2.7% annualized and accelerating. The Fed's favorite inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is higher at 3.9% but it is only available through January. In any event, it appears that consumer price inflation is now running hotter than the Fed's 2% target. Volatile producer price inflation is trending higher at 13.0% and accelerating. Average hourly earnings change is trending at 4.3% annualized, which is healthy. Unemployment rate is trending at 4.4%, still low. The rate-of-change trend in total payroll employment is zero, of some concern. Even before the war, the economy was running hot on inflation; with spiked oil prices, the picture will probably be worse in March. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) change has strengthened to a 4.4% trend rate. Retail sales (nominal) are weak and Housing Starts have strengthened a bit, both only available through January. Money supply M2 change is trending at 7.2%, reflecting generous support by the Fed. Through February, Treasury rates were 3.6% for 2-year and 4.1% for 10-year; the most recent figures are 4.0% for 2-year and 4.4% for 10-year, reflecting high uncertainty about accelerating inflation on the one hand and the possibility of a recession on the other. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined slightly in January, the last month available. Our Simple Macro Model forecasts trend real growth and quiet inflation over the next few quarters, but that picture seems hopelessly out of date at this point. Consumer Sentiment fell in March, driven by inflation fears, rising gas prices, and geopolitical tensions. The economic outlook is particularly foggy at this time, with strapped consumers and escalating warfare with Iran.