US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through July 2024) US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at 1.2% annualized and decelerating. Same is true for the Fed's favorite inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures price inflation rate, trending at 1.6% and decelerating. Average hourly earnings change is trending at 3.2% annualized, which means that workers are finally beating inflation. Unemployment rate trend has ticked up to 4.2% but is still very low. These are all good numbers. The only fly in the ointment is producer price inflation which is trending at 9.6% annualized and accelerating. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) is trending flat and Retail Sales (nominal) are trending up after a surge in July. Housing Starts are trending distinctly down. Money supply M2 is trending up, reflecting some loosening by the Fed. Two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are trending relatively flat, but the most recent daily figures are down to about 3.9% for both. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell again in July, portending sluggish growth. Our Simple Macro Model forecasts trend real growth and quiet inflation over the next few quarters. For most of us, that would be a welcome outcome.
CLICK ON LINK TO VIEW CHART AND CLICK ON LEFT ARROW (NOT X) TO RETURN TO MAIN PAGE