US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through June 2026) US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at 1.7% annualized but it is more volatile than usual. The Fed's favorite inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is also trending lower at 2.8%. Obviously the inflation picture is rather murky at this point, even without oil. Average hourly earnings change is trending at 3.2% annualized. Unemployment rate is trending at 4.2%, still low. The rate-of-change trend in total payroll employment is 1.0%, of some concern but not a disaster. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) trend change was relatively strong at a 3.8% trend rate. Retail Sales (nominal) trended up strongly in June, despite consumer anguish, while Housing Starts (real) rebounded. Money supply M2 change is trending up at 8.9%, reflecting very generous support by the Fed. Through June, trend Treasury rates were 4.1% for 2-year and 4.5% for 10-year; the most recent figures are 4.2% for 2-year and 4.7% for 10-year, reflecting high uncertainty about inflation. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined in June. Our Simple Macro Model forecasts trend real growth, stubbornly elevated inflation and rising interest rates over the next few quarters. Consumer Sentiment increased in July, although it is still at a very low level. Paradoxically, consumers aren't happy but they haven't reduced spending. The economic outlook is particularly foggy at this time, with gloomy consumers and a prolonged war.