US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through August 2026) Annualized monthly US core consumer price inflation (excluding food and energy) is trending at 2.6%. The Fed's favorite inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures price inflation (excluding food and energy) is trending at 2.1% and decelerating. Average hourly earnings change is trending at 2.5% annualized, insufficient to cover core consumer price inflation. Volatile producer price inflation is trending at 8.7%. Unemployment rate is trending at 4.1%, still low but reflective of a shrinking labor force. The rate-of-change trend in total payroll employment is 0.8%, indicating weak job creation. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) trend change was relatively solid at a 2.1% trend rate. Retail Sales (nominal) spiked up in August while Housing Starts (real) languished. Money supply M2 change is trending up at 7.3%, reflecting generous support by the Fed but there is no move yet to cut short-term interest rates; conversely, the Fed raised its benchmark rate from 3.75% to 4% in September. Meanwhile, trend Treasury rates through August were 4.4% for 2-year and 4.7% for 10-year, but those are already history. Current values are much higher at 4.9% for 2-year and 5.3% for 10-year. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index edged down in August, still tentative. Our Simple Macro Model forecasts trend real growth, stubbornly elevated inflation, and mildly rising interest rates over the next few quarters, but that picture is probably already outdated. Consumer Sentiment declined further in September to a very low level. Consumers are unhappy with sticky inflation, higher borrowing costs, and puny job creation. The economic outlook is particularly foggy at this time, with mixed indicator signals, gloomy consumers, a prolonged war, and chaotic tariffs.