US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through January 2026) Due to the government shutdown, October is missing from inflation indicators, requiring an imputation between September and November. Some indicators are still off-schedule because government statistical agencies are still catching up. US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at a 2.7% annualized and slightly accelerating. The Fed's favorite inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is higher at 3.2% but it is only available through December. In any event, it appears that consumer price inflation is now running a little hotter than the Fed's 2% target, although volatile producer price inflation is actually trending negative. Average hourly earnings change is trending flat at 3.7% annualized, which is healthy. Unemployment rate is trending at 4.4%, still low. The rate-of-change trend in total payroll employment is near zero, of some concern. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) change has strengthened to a 4.1% trend rate. Retail sales (nominal) and Housing Starts are weak and only available through December. The pre-Christmas spending streak may have paused. Money supply M2 change is trending at 3.2%, reflecting consistent support by the Fed. The most recent daily Treasury rate figures, 3.4% for 2-year and 4.0% for 10-year, are non-inverted and healthy. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index continued to decline through December, the last month available. Our Simple Macro Model forecasts trend real growth and quiet inflation over the next few quarters, but that picture could obviously change as we move forward. Consumer Sentiment remained at a very low level in February. The economic outlook is particularly foggy at this time, particularly with respect to tariffs and now open warfare with Iran.
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