US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through February 2024) US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at 4.7% annualized, while overall consumer price inflation is trending a bit lower at 4.2%. These are both well above the Fed's 2% target. Producer price index is trending up at 3.2%. Average hourly earnings change is trending at 3.6% annualized. Unemployment rate trend remains very low at 3.9%. These metrics indicate that inflation may be tough to contain. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) and Retail Sales (nominal) are both trending down whereas Housing Starts are trending up. The Fed remains tight with money supply M2 trend essentially flat. Two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are still slightly inverted. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index nudged up slightly in February, the first time in two years. Have we skirted a real downturn? A Simple Macro Model suggests that we have, although this quarter may be soft before resuming trend growth. Interestingly, we had a technical recession (two negative GDP growth quarters) during the first half of 2022, although the NBER failed to catalog it as the real thing. Hence the much anticipated recession may have already occurred when the Fed first reversed course away from unending easy money.
CLICK ON LINK TO VIEW CHART AND CLICK ON LEFT ARROW (NOT X) TO RETURN TO MAIN PAGE