ROBERT A AGNEW
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US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through August 2023)
US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at moderate 2.4% annualized, however overall consumer and producer prices spiked up with oil in August.  We are not yet out of the inflationary woods.  Average hourly earnings change is trending at 4.1% annualized reflecting a tight labor market.  Unemployment rate trend remains very low at 3.7%.  Industrial Production and Retail Sales are in uptrends at 4.5% and 6.6% annualized rates respectively.  Housing Starts trend spiked down to 1,380 units in August.  The Fed remains tight.  Money supply M2 trend is essentially flat after a sustained decline.  Two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are still inverted, suggesting recession.  Conference Board's Leading Economic Index decreased again in August (17 months in a row), again presaging recession.
  A soft landing still seems unlikely.

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Consumer Price Index

Core Consumer Price Index

Producer Price Index

Average Hourly Earnings

Unemployment Rate

Industrial Production Index

Retail Sales

Housing Starts

M2 Money Supply

Two-Year Treasury Rate

​Ten-Year Treasury Rate

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