US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through June 2024) US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at 1.6% annualized and decelerating. Same is true for the Fed's favorite inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures price inflation rate, trending at 2.3% and decelerating. Producer price inflation is trending at 2.5%. Average hourly earnings change is trending at 3.8% annualized, which means that workers are finally beating inflation. Unemployment rate trend remains very low at 4.1%. These are all good numbers. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) is trending up and Retail Sales (nominal) are relatively flat, while Housing Starts are trending down. Money supply M2 is trending up, reflecting some loosening by the Fed. Two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are still fairly steady and slightly inverted. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell slightly in June, portending sluggish growth. Our Simple Macro Model forecasts trend real growth and quiet inflation over the next few quarters. For most of us, that would be a welcome outcome.
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