US Monthly Economic Indicators (Through November 2025) Due to the government shutdown, October is missing from various indicators, requiring an imputation between September and November. Some indicators are still off-schedule because government statistical agencies are still catching up. Therefore, we will defer updates until late February, when we will have a first glance at 2025 Q4 GDP and most monthly indicators for January 2026. Let's hope there isn't another extended shutdown. US core consumer price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is trending at a low 1.6% annualized and decelerating. The Fed's favorite inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures price inflation rate (excluding food and energy) is not available past September. In any event, it appears that consumer price inflation is now in the neighborhood of the Fed's 2% target; more clarity will be manifest in future months. Average hourly earnings change is trending flat at 3.2% annualized, which is healthy. Unemployment rate is trending up slightly at 4.6%. The rate-of-change trend in total payroll employment is flat. On the activity side, Industrial Production (real) change is flat while Housing Starts and Retail Sales are unavailable. It appears that consumers are still spending, notwithstanding concerns about inflation, jobs, housing, and personal finances. Money supply M2 change is trending at 3.2%, reflecting consistent support by the Fed and a recent 0.25% cut in the Fed Funds Rate; Trump doesn't seem to know what a friend he has in Powell. The most recent daily Treasury rate figures, 3.4% for 2-year and 4.2% for 10-year, are non-inverted and healthy. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index dropped in September (last available read) but this is ancient history. Our Simple Macro Model forecasts trend real growth and quiet inflation over the next few quarters, but that picture could obviously change as we move forward; real GDP growth was unexpectedly strong in Q3, but we expect moderation. One exception to lagged indicators is Consumer Sentiment, which actually edged up in December but is still at a very low level. Economic fog will undoubtedly lift in future months, including the full impact of Trump's policies.
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